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S0005 · colorado_core_knowledge_lottery · reviewed version family; occurrence membership machine-normalized

A Kindergarten Lottery Evaluation of Core Knowledge Charter Schools

Reviewed canonical citation: Grissmer, D., et al. (2023). A kindergarten lottery evaluation of Core Knowledge charter schools: Should building general knowledge have a central role in educational and social science research and policy? EdWorkingPaper 23-755.
study mixed affiliation38 occurrences across 5 books · load 190

A Kindergarten Lottery Evaluation of Core Knowledge Charter Schools · version family

Review authority: Codex multi-agent D1-D2 primary-source audit; not human-signed

Grissmer, D., et al. (2023). A kindergarten lottery evaluation of Core Knowledge charter schools: Should building general knowledge have a central role in educational and social science research and policy? EdWorkingPaper 23-755.

Related family member · technical report

Core Knowledge Charter Schools Kindergarten Lottery Evaluation Registration

David Grissmer, and colleagues · 2022 · Open Science Framework

preregistration for the Colorado lottery evaluation; identity and registered estimand corroborated by the independent methods review

checked record

Review state: registration identity corroborated; direct record inaccessible

Primary reviewed work · study

A Kindergarten Lottery Evaluation of Core Knowledge Charter Schools

David Grissmer, Thomas G. White, Richard Buddin, Mark Berends, Daniel Willingham, Jamie DeCoster, Chelsea Duran, Chris Hulleman, William Murrah, Tanya Evans · 2023 · EdWorkingPaper 23-755

full working paper used by Dossier 2; highlighted estimates use restrictions that differ from the registered primary sample

doi.org/10.26300/nsbq-hb21 · checked record

Review state: full text read

Related family member · commentary

How Building Knowledge Boosts Literacy and Learning

David Grissmer, Thomas G. White · 2024 · Education Next

public transmission of the study's restricted pooled estimate and low-income subgroup result

checked record

Review state: full web article read

Identity boundary still open
  • The registration was not directly accessible during the audit; its sample and primary-estimand details were corroborated through the independent Coalition for Evidence-Based Policy review and the working paper's account of the changed method.

Grissmer et al. 2023 Colorado lottery evaluation · qualifies A4, qualifies A5, challenges A6, challenges A7, qualifies A8

Role

whole school lottery with registered restricted estimand change

Access / review

full working paper; primary read — Full working paper, sample restrictions, attrition, estimands and subgroup analysis; OSF identity corroborated but direct registration inaccessible

Independence for this use

mixed affiliation

Academic/federal evaluation of CKF schools; David Grissmer is independent of CKF, Dan Willingham is a CKF trustee, and CKF supplied professional development. Evaluator, programme and support ties are therefore shown separately.

Can establish

For the registered 1,831-single-applicant sample, random offer estimates access to the whole charter-school package: grade-4 ITT .09 (n.s.), grade-5 ITT .12 (significant), and the prespecified grade-6 ELA ITT .04 and TOT .09 (both n.s.). The restricted grades 3-6 TOT .473 is at most a complier LATE for that whole-school package, conditional on IV, exclusion, monotonicity and missingness assumptions.

Cannot establish

A .473 registered-population ATE, a causal Core Knowledge curriculum effect, commonality as the active ingredient, a treatment-by-disadvantage interaction, replicated subgroup benefit or durable gap closure.

Open limitation: There were 2,310 unique applicants across 14 lotteries and nine schools, but the registered single-applicant sample was N=1,831; take-up was 45% and grade-6 attrition 37%. The highlighted pooled ITT .241/TOT .473 excludes four high-differential-attrition lotteries and younger applicants. The low-income-site result comes from 62 applications and only 16 winner-enrollees; paper N=167 counts repeated grade observations, not children.

Open the checked external record

Return to the D2 investigation context

Every occurrence, grouped by book and chapter, with the claim it was linked to support and (where the extraction regenerated one) the underlying warrant.

2016 · Why Knowledge Matters
A random-assignment, longitudinal study in Colorado led by David Grissmer evaluating the effects of the Core Knowledge curriculum.
direct Schools that faithfully implement Core Knowledge principles raise achievement and narrow achievement gaps more effectively than comparison schools.
ch 8 · empirical_study · wkm:ch8_E_new46
Warrant (implicit): Results from random-assignment longitudinal studies of specific schools can be generalized to validate the underlying curriculum principles on a national scale.
could fail ifFidelity of implementation varies so greatly that the success of the 'faithful' schools might be due to the high quality of the teachers who choose to implement it strictly.
A three-year randomized study of Core Knowledge charter schools in Colorado which yielded positive comparative results, though initially limited by small sample size.
direct The small-scale studies of Core Knowledge in the US yield positive results that confirm the large-scale findings of international PISA reports.
ch 8 · empirical_study · wkm:ch8_E_new47
Warrant (implicit): Agreement between small-scale local studies and large-scale international assessments proves the universal validity of a specific educational theory.
could fail ifInternational PISA results are influenced by diverse cultural and social safety net factors that are not present in the small-scale US charter school samples.
2020 · How to Educate a Citizen
A randomized lottery study in Colorado comparing Core Knowledge students to students in child-centered schools.
direct A randomized study of Colorado students found a verbal-achievement advantage of over half a standard deviation for knowledge-centered schools compared to child-centered schools.
ch 3 · natural_experiment · how-to-educate-a-citizen:ch3_E4
Warrant (implicit): A randomized lottery study comparing different pedagogical approaches provides a valid measure of the inherent effectiveness of the curricula themselves rather than the socioeconomic backgrounds of the students.
could fail ifThe 'lottery' effect may introduce a selection bias where the families who apply for the lottery are more educationally engaged than those who do not, regardless of the eventual placement.
The achievement gap for disadvantaged students was reduced by two-thirds of a standard deviation in Core Knowledge schools.
direct Knowledge-centered curricula provide a two-thirds standard deviation achievement advantage for the most disadvantaged students.
ch 3 · statistical_data · how-to-educate-a-citizen:ch3_E5
Warrant (implicit): Significant improvements in standardized test scores among disadvantaged student populations are primarily attributable to the specific curriculum used rather than external social factors.
could fail ifThe result could be influenced by 'teaching to the test' or narrowing the instructional focus to only those subjects measured by the verbal achievement instrument.
David Grissmer's study results showing explicit instruction led to a 2/3 standard deviation gain for disadvantaged students.
direct Disadvantaged students gain relatively more than advantaged students when provided with explicit whole-class instruction.
ch 4 · statistical_data · how-to-educate-a-citizen:ch4_E32
Warrant (implicit): Explicit instruction acts as a 'leveler' because it provides all students with the same foundational data that advantaged students receive at home.
could fail ifThe 'gain' measured in the study might be a short-term increase in test-taking ability rather than a long-term closing of the actual knowledge gap.
2022 · American Ethnicity
David Grissmer's five-million-dollar study from the Arnold Foundation researching the effectiveness of Core Knowledge.
related Lottery-based studies of oversubscribed charter schools can isolate the effect of curriculum by equalizing the factor of parental solicitude.
ch 1 · empirical_study · ae:ch1_E25
David Grissmer's matched-pair lottery study of Core Knowledge charter schools in Denver, tracking students for six years.
direct Lottery-based studies of oversubscribed charter schools can isolate the effect of curriculum by equalizing the factor of parental solicitude.
ch 1 · natural_experiment · ae:ch1_E26
Warrant (explicit): Comparing lottery winners to lottery losers in the same applicant pool isolates the school's impact by holding parental motivation and home environment constant.
could fail ifDifferential attrition, where the most struggling lottery winners drop out and return to public schools while successful ones stay, can artificially inflate the school's apparent success rate.
A study in Colorado showing a fast and steep rise in verbal scores for disadvantaged students over seven years.
direct A knowledge-based curriculum would cause a fast and steep rise in verbal scores for the most disadvantaged students within seven years.
ch 6 · empirical_study · ae:ch6_E9
Warrant (implicit): Educational outcomes achieved in a specific regional context, like Colorado, can be replicated nationally if the same knowledge-based curriculum is implemented.
could fail ifThe Colorado results might be attributed to 'Hawthorne effects' or specific local leadership and funding levels that are not present in other districts.
A scientifically controlled, longitudinal, matched-pair study in Denver that demonstrates the efficacy of a specific grade-by-grade topic list.
direct A knowledge-based elementary curriculum has demonstrated the ability to fully overcome the reading gap between different races and economic groups.
ch 9 · natural_experiment · ae:ch9_E1
Warrant (implicit): If a matched-pair longitudinal study shows that a specific curriculum eliminates an achievement gap in one district, the result can be generalized as a universal solution for that gap.
could fail ifThe Denver results may be influenced by local implementation fidelity or specific teacher training that cannot be replicated elsewhere without identical administrative support.
2023 · Shared Knowledge
Longitudinal studies by Professors Kim and Grissmer cited as supporting the shared-knowledge approach.
direct No alternative mode of early education carries as much scientific and evidentiary weight as the shared-knowledge approach.
ch 9 · empirical_study · sk:ch9_E4
Warrant (explicit): The validity of an educational approach is determined by the comparative strength and quantity of the empirical scientific evidence supporting it relative to other methods.
could fail ifLongitudinal studies often struggle to isolate the 'shared knowledge' variable from other factors like teacher quality, class size, or socioeconomic shifts in the study population.
An eight-year longitudinal experimental study using a lottery design to compare students in Core Knowledge charter schools against those in other schools.
direct The eight-year longitudinal study of Core Knowledge schools led by David Grissmer utilized a punctilious methodology that is difficult to find fault with.
ch 10 · natural_experiment · sk:ch10_E1
Warrant (implicit): A longitudinal study using a randomized lottery design provides the highest level of causal evidence and internal validity available in educational research.
could fail ifSelf-selection bias, as the lottery pool only includes families motivated enough to apply to charter schools.
A seven-year study by Grissmer showing that better and fairer results are achieved by a shared knowledge approach compared to child-centered approaches.
direct A shared knowledge approach in early schooling achieves better and fairer results than a child-centered approach.
ch 10 · empirical_study · sk:ch10_E10
Warrant (implicit): The superiority of one educational model over another is proven when longitudinal data shows consistently higher outcomes for the former across diverse student groups.
could fail ifImplementation variance, where the 'child-centered' comparison group may have been poorly executed rather than being fundamentally inferior.
The Grissmer Study (Colorado), which the author claims demonstrates the superiority of Core Knowledge's shared topic sequence.
direct The key variable driving the Grissmer study's positive results was the whole shared-topic curriculum.
ch 10 · empirical_study · sk:ch10_E14
Warrant (implicit): When a specific curriculum is the primary differentiator in a controlled study, the structure of that curriculum's content is the causal driver of performance gains.
could fail ifThe 'Hawthorne Effect,' where the success of Core Knowledge schools is due to the high enthusiasm of teachers adopting a new program rather than the content itself.
The cumulative K-6 gain for students in the Core Knowledge curriculum was approximately 16 percentile points on reading tests.
related The Core Knowledge curriculum has a significant positive effect on English Language Arts scores, with a Treatment on Treated (TOT) effect size of 0.473 across grades 3-6.
ch 10 · statistical_data · sk:ch10_E2
Analysis of one school in the Grissmer study with low-income students showed ELA gains sufficient to close the income-based achievement gap.
direct A knowledge-rich curriculum can produce gains large enough to eliminate the achievement gap associated with family income.
ch 10 · statistical_data · sk:ch10_E4
Warrant (implicit): If an intervention's effect size exceeds the statistical difference between income groups, it is sufficient to eliminate the achievement gap.
could fail ifA single-school sample of low-income students may not be representative of the national low-income population due to idiosyncratic school leadership or local factors.
Treatment on Treated (TOT) effect size of 0.473 for ELA across grades 3-6.
direct The Core Knowledge curriculum has a significant positive effect on English Language Arts scores, with a Treatment on Treated (TOT) effect size of 0.473 across grades 3-6.
ch 10 · statistical_data · sk:ch10_E5
Warrant (implicit): A Treatment on Treated (TOT) effect size of nearly 0.5 represents a substantial and educationally significant improvement in student proficiency.
could fail ifThe TOT estimate may overestimate the effect for the general population because it only measures those who actually completed the program, excluding dropouts.
Longitudinal lottery-based study of Colorado schools using PARCC tests for ELA and Math, showing significant gains for Core Knowledge students.
direct The Core Knowledge curriculum has a significant positive effect on English Language Arts scores, with a Treatment on Treated (TOT) effect size of 0.473 across grades 3-6.
ch 10 · empirical_study · sk:ch10_E6
Warrant (implicit): Consistent score improvements on standardized state assessments (like PARCC) over multiple years serve as valid proxies for improved general literacy.
could fail ifTeaching to the test, where score gains reflect specific exam preparation rather than a broader increase in reading comprehension.
Grade 5 science test scores (CTB/McGraw-Hill) showing a significant 0.30 effect size for Core Knowledge students.
related The Core Knowledge curriculum has a significant positive effect on English Language Arts scores, with a Treatment on Treated (TOT) effect size of 0.473 across grades 3-6.
ch 10 · statistical_data · sk:ch10_E7
2024 · The Ratchet Effect
A seven-year randomized control trial of 2,300 students in Denver compared lottery winners in Core Knowledge schools to those attending other schools.
direct Core Knowledge students achieved a cumulative long-term gain of approximately 16 percentile points from kindergarten to sixth grade.
ch 1 · natural_experiment · re:ch1_E24
Warrant (implicit): A percentile gain observed over a seven-year period in a lottery-based study indicates that the specific curriculum used by the winning schools is the cause of the academic advantage.
could fail ifThe 'lottery winner' effect, where the academic gain is actually caused by the higher average motivation of families who actively seek out school choice rather than the curriculum itself.
In a Denver study, a low-income school using a shared-knowledge curriculum eliminated the income-based achievement gap.
direct Shared-knowledge schooling is capable of entirely eliminating the achievement gap associated with family income.
ch 1 · empirical_study · re:ch1_E25
Warrant (implicit): The success of a specific curriculum in a single low-income school is representative of that curriculum's ability to achieve the same result across all socio-economic contexts.
could fail ifExtreme outlier effects or 'superstar' leadership at that specific school site that cannot be replicated across an entire school system.
A kindergarten lottery evaluation demonstrating the effectiveness of the Core Knowledge curriculum in improving student outcomes.
direct Core Knowledge students achieved a cumulative long-term gain of approximately 16 percentile points from kindergarten to sixth grade.
ch 1 · natural_experiment · re:ch1_E27
Warrant (implicit): Data derived from a randomized kindergarten lottery provides a valid basis for calculating the precise long-term cumulative gain of a curriculum through sixth grade.
could fail ifDifferential attrition, where less successful students may drop out of the Core Knowledge schools at higher rates than the control group over seven years, artificially inflating the final scores.
A seven-year longitudinal study using a lottery methodology involving 2,310 students in Denver charter schools, showing massive gains for those using Core Knowledge.
direct The Core Knowledge curriculum resulted in a cumulative long-term reading gain of approximately 16 percentile points for all students.
ch 5 · natural_experiment · re:ch5_E1
Warrant (implicit): A lottery-based longitudinal study that tracks students over seven years provides a sufficiently controlled environment to attribute measured gains directly to the specific curriculum used rather than to external selection factors.
could fail ifThe 'charter school effect' or 'lottery winner effect' may involve unobserved family motivation or parental engagement that differs from the general population even among those who enter a lottery.
The study found that a school of low-income pupils fully overcame their disadvantage using Core Knowledge.
direct The Core Knowledge curriculum gains in the low-income school were large enough to eliminate the achievement gap associated with income.
ch 5 · empirical_study · re:ch5_E10
Warrant (implicit): Educational interventions that result in low-income students matching the performance of high-income students on standardized tests have effectively negated the socioeconomic causes of the achievement gap.
could fail ifMeasurement artifacts, where the test measures a narrow set of 'school-based' knowledge that masks continuing disparities in broader cultural capital or long-term career outcomes.
The performance of Core Knowledge students on Colorado reading tests is cited as the empirical finding that the theory of shared background knowledge explains.
direct The superior results of Core Knowledge pupils occur because the curriculum deliberately imparts the shared knowledge required to disambiguate American texts.
ch 5 · statistical_data · re:ch5_E12
Warrant (explicit): Correlation between a curriculum that teaches shared background knowledge and high scores on state tests proves that the content of that knowledge is the causal mechanism for the students' success.
could fail ifAlternative pedagogy, where the success is actually due to the more disciplined, direct-instruction teaching methods typically used in Core Knowledge schools rather than the specific 'shared' content itself.
Studies comparing pupil results using standard state or local literacy tests to evaluate the impact of knowledge-based curricula.
related A reading test is effectively a knowledge test in disguise.
ch 5 · statistical_data · re:ch5_E13
Comparison of the Core Knowledge approach with other reading programs in the Denver area regarding effectiveness with disadvantaged students.
direct The Core Knowledge program was more effective than other programs because it imparted specific background knowledge shared by literate members of the nation.
ch 5 · statistical_data · re:ch5_E16
Warrant (explicit): The effectiveness of a reading program is determined by its ability to align student knowledge with the specific cultural literacy expected by the nation's broader literate public.
could fail ifCultural exclusion, where the 'shared knowledge' defined by the 'literate nation' is based on a narrow, Eurocentric, or elite canon that alienates students from minority or marginalized backgrounds.
A seven-year longitudinal randomized controlled trial in Colorado finding that the Core Knowledge Sequence significantly boosted literacy and learning.
direct Core Knowledge schools produce outsized impacts on student achievement compared to schools using other models.
ch 5 · empirical_study · re:ch5_E18
Warrant (implicit): A longitudinal randomized controlled trial showing significant academic gains in specific schools indicates that the curriculum sequence used in those schools is the primary driver of the observed achievement differences.
could fail ifSelection bias in the form of parental involvement or teacher motivation often co-occurs with the adoption of specialized curricula like Core Knowledge, confounding the curriculum's independent effect.
A causal study identifying significant, disproportionate academic gains for students attending schools using the Core Knowledge curriculum.
direct Core Knowledge schools produce outsized impacts on student achievement compared to schools using other models.
ch 5 · empirical_study · re:ch5_E23
Warrant (implicit): Consistent academic gains across diverse school settings using a shared curriculum demonstrate that the curriculum itself possesses causal power independent of local school leadership or demographic factors.
could fail ifUnmeasured variables such as professional development intensity or increased instructional time for literacy during the study period may be the actual causes of the 'outsized impacts'.
PARCC (Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers) test scores from grades 3-6 in English Language Arts and Math.
direct The Core Knowledge curriculum had a significant Treatment On Treated (TOT) effect size of 0.473 on English Language Arts across grades 3-6.
ch 5 · statistical_data · re:ch5_E4
Warrant (implicit): Standardized state-wide ELA test scores are a valid proxy for measuring the total impact of a specific curriculum on a student's linguistic and interpretive development.
could fail ifTeaching to the test, where the curriculum's alignment with PARCC test formats artificially inflates scores without necessarily improving underlying reading comprehension or general literacy.
Researchers found that general knowledge should play a larger role in early grades and that Core Knowledge students performed better.
direct General knowledge should play a larger, more coherent role in the early grades.
ch 5 · empirical_study · re:ch5_E7
Warrant (implicit): Professional researchers' recommendations based on comparative performance data constitute a reliable mandate for changing early childhood educational standards.
could fail ifExpert overreach, where researchers focus exclusively on cognitive metrics while ignoring the developmental or social-emotional trade-offs of a more structured, content-heavy curriculum for young children.
A graphic showing that Core Knowledge benefits remain steady across grades 4-6.
direct The benefits of attending a Core Knowledge charter school remain steady across grades 4-6.
ch 5 · statistical_data · re:ch5_E8
Warrant (implicit): If performance differentials between groups remain constant over multiple grade levels in longitudinal data, the initial intervention has successfully created a permanent shift in the students' learning trajectory.
could fail ifThe ceiling effect, where the stability of the gains indicates that the curriculum stops providing incremental advantages after the 4th grade, potentially allowing other groups to catch up later.
Research by James Kim and David Grissmer regarding the necessity of step-by-step commonality in K-8 school lessons.
related Setting a definite curriculum framework is the single most important educational improvement for public schools.
ch 6 · empirical_study · re:ch6_E16
Figure 3: Effects on Reading by Student Grade showing stabilized benefits in grades 4-6 for Core Knowledge students.
direct The benefits of attending a Core Knowledge school stabilize by the 4th grade and remain steady through 6th grade.
ch 6 · statistical_data · re:ch6_E6
Warrant (implicit): If academic performance gains relative to a control group remain constant over several grade levels, it indicates that the intervention has reached its full potential or 'stabilized' its effect.
could fail ifThe 'stability' might be a ceiling effect of the test instrument itself, which may fail to capture widening or narrowing gaps in more complex later-grade content.
The Grissmer Study: An experimental study using randomized kindergarten lotteries in nine oversubscribed Colorado charter schools to measure long-term reading outcomes.
direct Students who attend Core Knowledge charter schools achieve significantly higher scores in reading, math, and science in grades 3-6 than comparable students not offered admission.
ch appendix-iii · natural_experiment · re:chappendix-iii_E1
Warrant (implicit): A randomized lottery that separates students into treatment and control groups before schooling begins effectively isolates the school's curriculum as the primary cause of later differences in academic performance.
could fail ifDifferential attrition, where less motivated or lower-performing students in the lottery-winner group drop out of the charter school at higher rates than those in the control group, could skew the results.
Analysis of PARCC reading, math, and science test scores in grades 3-6 for lottery winners vs. losers.
direct Students who attend Core Knowledge charter schools achieve significantly higher scores in reading, math, and science in grades 3-6 than comparable students not offered admission.
ch appendix-iii · statistical_data · re:chappendix-iii_E5
Warrant (implicit): Standardized test scores like PARCC provide a valid and comprehensive measure of a student's functional literacy and subject-matter mastery.
could fail ifThe curriculum may be 'aligned' specifically to the test's format or content, resulting in inflated scores that do not reflect a genuine increase in transferable knowledge or literacy.
A natural experiment utilizing kindergarten enrollment lotteries in Colorado charter schools to ensure random assignment.
direct Students who attend Core Knowledge charter schools achieve significantly higher scores in reading, math, and science in grades 3-6 than comparable students not offered admission.
ch appendix-iii · natural_experiment · re:chappendix-iii_E6
Warrant (implicit): Randomized assignment through lottery systems eliminates selection bias by ensuring that both groups possess equal levels of initial motivation, parental support, and baseline ability.
could fail ifParents who enter lotteries for specific 'Core Knowledge' schools may differ fundamentally from the general population, making the results non-generalizable to students in traditional public schools.
Longitudinal data tracking students over a period of up to seven years of schooling.
related Unlike most reading interventions that have small, short-term effects, knowledge-based schooling produces large, long-term impacts.
ch appendix-iii · empirical_study · re:chappendix-iii_E7
A study on the impact of background knowledge on student literacy outcomes and its long-term benefits.
direct Building knowledge is a critical foundation for student literacy and produces potentially lifelong academic benefits.
ch appendix-iii · empirical_study · re:chappendix-iii_E9
Warrant (implicit): Short-term gains in literacy scores achieved through knowledge-based instruction are cumulative and persistent enough to influence a student's socioeconomic trajectory throughout adulthood.
could fail ifThe 'fade-out' effect, where early intervention gains disappear by middle or high school as other variables become more dominant, could negate the predicted lifelong benefits.

Raw book:chapter:endnote references collected during endnote backfill.

ae:1:24ae:9:133wkm:8:32wkm:8:34

As they appeared before normalization/consolidation into this source identity.

  • Grissmer
  • Grissmer (cited in chapter 3)
  • Grissmer et al. (2023)
  • Grissmer researchers
  • Grissmer, D. (2024), et al., 'How Building Knowledge Boosts Literacy and Learning'
  • Professor Grissmer